Casino maths
RTP Explained: Why 96% Is Not a Deposit Guarantee
A 96% return-to-player figure does not promise to leave you with 96 out of every 100 units deposited. The calculation concerns stakes, and its average is not a personal payout schedule.
Start with the right denominator
A deposit is money transferred into an account. Turnover is the sum of the stakes placed. Returns are the amounts paid back by games, usually including any returned stake. These quantities are related, but they are not interchangeable.
Suppose an account starts with 100 units. A player places a 10-unit bet and receives 8 back. The balance is now 98, while turnover is 10. After another 10-unit bet returning 12, the balance is 100 and turnover is 20. Breaking even so far does not make turnover zero.
A calculation for a fixed amount of play
In a hypothetical game with theoretical RTP of 96%, a predetermined total of 1,000 units staked has expected returns of 1,000 × 0.96 = 960 units. Expected net loss is 40 units. That is a mathematical average, not a bill that every player receives.
The UK Gambling Commission explains that RTP describes an average across many plays, rather than a return on each individual play. See its explanation of RTP.
Why a small deposit can create large turnover
Money returned by one round can be staked again. If 500 bets of 2 units are completed, turnover is 1,000 units regardless of whether the initial deposit was 100 or 1,000. However, a 100-unit balance may run out before all 500 bets can be completed.
This is why multiplying a deposit by 4% does not generally describe the expected cost of an entire session. Session length, stakes and stopping conditions affect the amount wagered. A calculation for fixed turnover must not be presented as a guaranteed outcome for a limited balance.
What the percentage leaves out
RTP alone does not describe how widely outcomes vary, how often a game pays anything or how likely a particular player is to finish ahead. Two mathematical models can share the same average while producing very different patterns of returns.
Check the information for the exact game version and feature being used. More importantly, do not extend a losing session to collect an imagined missing share of RTP. An average is not money owed to your account.
Related reading
For adults aged 18 and over. Educational content, not a promise of profit. Read our responsible gambling guidance.
Back to the blog