Why a 60% win rate can still lose money.

60 wins, but a loss overall

Imagine 100 bets of 100 units each, all at decimal odds of 1.50. Of these bets, 60 win and 40 lose. This is an illustrative example with no fees, deductions or void bets.

The total amount staked is 10,000 units. Each winning bet returns 150 units, including the original 100-unit stake. Total returns are therefore 60 × 150 = 9,000 units.

The net result is a loss of 1,000 units, despite a 60% win rate. Most predictions were correct, but the returns did not cover all the stakes.

Odds change the arithmetic

Keeping the same 60 wins and equal stakes, different fixed odds produce different results:

• At 1.50: returns of 9,000 units and a loss of 1,000.
• At 1.70: returns of 10,200 units and a profit of 200.
• At 2.00: returns of 12,000 units and a profit of 2,000.

This is a comparison of calculations, not a prediction. Choosing higher odds does not mean the same win rate can be maintained.

The break-even win rate

For equal stakes at constant decimal odds, with each bet either winning or losing, the break-even proportion is 1 ÷ odds.

• Odds of 1.50 require approximately 66.67% wins.
• Odds of 1.70 require approximately 58.82% wins.
• Odds of 1.90 require approximately 52.63% wins.
• Odds of 2.00 require 50% wins.

These figures exclude additional deductions. The formula gives a break-even threshold; it does not establish the actual probability of a sporting outcome.

Why average odds are not enough

Consider two 100-unit bets, one at 1.50 and one at 3.00. Average odds are 2.25. If one bet wins, the win rate is 50%.

If the 1.50 bet wins, returns are 150 and the net result is −50. If the 3.00 bet wins, returns are 300 and the net result is +100. The same win rate and average odds can describe very different outcomes.

Calculate actual returns for each bet rather than trying to reconstruct profit from averages.

ROI relates the result to turnover

Here, ROI means net result ÷ total amount staked × 100%. In the first example, −1,000 ÷ 10,000 × 100% gives −10%.

The denominator is turnover, not the initial deposit. Reusing money returned by earlier bets can make total stakes larger than the amount originally deposited. When comparing reports, check which formula each author uses.

What a useful results log contains

A complete record should let a reader recalculate the result. Include the publication time, event, exact market, available odds, stake, settlement and amount returned. Keep losing bets and record void or partially settled bets separately.

Stake sizes matter: several small wins may not offset one large loss. A profitable month also does not establish that the result will repeat, especially if the strategy was chosen after inspecting the data.

You can keep a paper record without wagering money. Fix the rules in advance, record predictions before events begin and include every qualifying result. Screenshots of selected wins cannot substitute for the complete history.